Macroeconomic Influence on the Financial Performance of Islamic Commercial Banks in Indonesia

Abstract

The Islamic banking industry in Indonesia continues to grow, but its financial performance is still influenced by various dynamic macroeconomic conditions. This study aims to analyze the effect of economic growth (GDP), inflation, rupiah exchange rate, and reference interest rate (BI Rate) on the financial performance of Sharia commercial banks (BUS) in Indonesia for the period 2021-2025 which is proxied by Return on Assets (ROA). This study uses a quantitative approach with secondary data obtained from the financial statements of seven Islamic commercial banks selected using purposive sampling technique. Data analysis was conducted using panel data regression with the best model is Random Effect Model (REM). The results showed that partially GDP has no significant effect on the ROA with a probability value of 0.8949, the rupiah exchange rate has no significant effect with a probability value of 0.8597, and the BI Rate has no significant effect with a probability value of 0.5498. In contrast, inflation has a positive and significant effect on ROA with a coefficient of 0.249194 and a probability value of 0.0019. Simultaneously, variable GDP, inflation, exchange rate, and BI Rate significantly affect the ROA with F-statistic value of 3.034803 and Prob (F-statistic) of 0.019649. The value of the coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.082502 indicates that 8.25% of ROA variation can be explained by macroeconomic variables in the model, while 91.75% is influenced by other factors outside the study. This finding indicates that inflation is the most influential macroeconomic factor on the financial performance of Islamic commercial banks during the study period.